The Consumer Will Be The True Driver Of This Trade
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The market, once again, is not giving traders much to work with. Yesterday was one of the lowest volume trading days since November 25th 2022, which was a half day for Thanksgiving. This may set the stage for a slow week leading up to another CPI drop, which often has the ability to move the market in either direction.
If CPI comes in a bit softer than expected the market may surge higher, however, if the inflation number comes in a bit hotter than expected, it could send prices careening off the cliff. Of course, the market has a mind of its own, so the opposite of both are just as likely to happen, but one thing is for sure, movement should follow that announcement.
The problem most traders have been having is there hasn’t been too much trend in this market. Any surge in prices is often tailed by a drop in prices and and drop in prices means a surge could be right around the corner as market makers move prices in the opposite direction or the initial move.
However, we can still look for certain sectors of the market that will give us more trend than if we were to just trade the overall market with ETFs like SPY or QQQ. Let’s take a look at one of those sectors now.
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY)
One sector that has started the week off stronger than other is Consumer Discretionary sector, which we will track using the XLY. The ETF is consolidating between 145-150 and with the coming catalyst of CPI, which could lead to a break of either of these levels and could be what sends the price higher or lower, depending on the final reading. With the strength coming into the week it wouldn’t be too far fetched to assume XLY could end the week with strength, but this largely depends of the CPI reading.
If the ETF breaks the 145 mark then we could suspect the strength to fall off, but with volume to the upside and above 150 we could see some follow through. Watch the video below to see what other sectors we have on watch before the week really picks up.
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